ABSTRACT
Stability indices derived from the early morning atmospheric profile have long been considered individually as indicators of thunderstorm potential. This study uses a combination of the more commonly used indices along with moisture and buoyancy elements to develop a thunderstorm threat or risk level within the period of 12 hours from observation time. Verification measures such as false alarm rates and ratios, proportion of perfect forecasts, probability of detection along with the critical success index and bias were used to statistically assess the value of the categorical forecasts. The results were compared with success measures from a single-valued index, the K-index, which is in common use as an indicator for thunderstorm potential.

ABSTRACT

This paper presents climate projections for Belize based on the output of a single global atmospheric circulation model. The 20-kilometer grid size model was developed at the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency and was run on their Earth Simulator supercomputer. Model performance evaluations based on data for Belize are presented in this paper. Qualitative future changes in two climatic variables- temperature and rainfall are also presented. Using this model, significant objectively based inferences can be made on the future climate of Belize.

Changes in the hydrological cycle due to climate change can lead to diverse impacts and risks.
As a variable resource, water is the agent that delivers many of the impacts of climate change to society. Example to energy, agriculture, health and transport sectors.
Observed and projected impacts of climate change on freshwater resources and their management are due mainly to increases in temperature and sea level, local changes in rainfall and changes in the variability of these quantities
The negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh its benefits.
Anthropogenic (human induced) climate change is one of the many stressors of water resources

Method:
Three stations were chosen within the North Stann Creek watershed. These were Melinda, Pomona and Middlesex.
Years were divided into seasons:
i. December, January, February (DJF)
ii. March, April, May (MAM)
iii. June, July August (JJA)
iv. September, October and November. (SON)
The DJF represents the cool transitional or “winter” months. MAM is the warm and dry part of the year. The rainy season typically starts in earnest in June and that section of the year is represented at the JJA quarter. The earlier part of SON marks the heart of the rainy season but also involves the start of the cool season in November.
Seasonal totals were plotted in the analysis of the observations.
Note: Line graphs in the precipitation analyses were used simply for their aesthetic properties. The author is aware that precipitation is not a continuous variable.

This document covers the tropical cyclones that affected Belize in 2010.

1) Storm surge calculations were done using The Arbiter of Storms (TAOS) computer model. TAOS is a PC based storm hazard model for assessing storm surge and wind hazards generated by tropical storms and hurricanes.
2) Cyclones of different intensities were simulated to approach the site all at the same speed of approach but become stationary at different locations.
3) The cyclones were made to become stationary for at 24 hours to the southwest southeast, and northeast of the site in order to simulate the effects of a constant southeasterly, northeasterly and northwesterly wind on the island.

Storm surge calculations were done using The Arbiter of Storms (TAOS) computer model. TAOS is a PC based storm hazard model for assessing storm surge and wind hazards generated by tropical storms and hurricanes.
Historical storm tracks were extracted from the TAOS database in order to find the frequency of occurrence of each class of tropical cyclones. The data presented in Table 1 include the amount of tropical cyclones passing within 30 nautical miles of both Placencia and Riversdale. It covers the period 1886 to 2005

Pulses in the mean easterly flow have long been a phenomenon which serves as an initiator of showery outbreaks along coastal Belize. The study embarked upon here served to show whether through a process of isolation such surges not only exist but are also capable of generating enough shear vorticity to initiate or even perpetuate coastal shower activity. The total wind vector of a rawinsonde sounding profile up to approximately 10,000 ft was resolved into its two components. A 24 hour east-west velocity component change was observed. A critical or threshold value for this u-component (or more appropriately -u component since it is the east-west component) change above which convection was initiated was determined.

For decades now the forecasting of severe local storms in Belize has been a subjective process based on the whims and discretion of the individual forecaster. This is a primary attempt at producing forecasting techniques for such events based on empirical derivations of key indicators to such an outburst. As more local knowledge is gained about the evolution of such weather phenomena more refinements will be made to these techniques. The ultimate aim of this research is the production of a severe local storm forecasting worksheet based on key indicators. This work could lead to the implementation of a severe weather watch and warning system for the country of Belize.

Overnight low temperatures in Belize are presently being forecast with the minimum of objectivity. Occasionally forecasters use climatology as a basis for such predictions while others use the so called "gut feeling" as a predictor. Although there are some minimum temperature forecast algorithms available none has been developed specifically to suit the orographic, topographic and other moderating effects in Belize. This research is the primary attempt at importing an external formula and adjusting it to suit the environs of coastal Belize. The Boyden Formula developed in the United Kingdom provides relatively more accurate values of night time low temperatures than techniques that are presently being utilized. The final outcome of this research is a formula applicable to forecasting low temperatures in Belize.